Zambia’s Second Quarter Outlook: Fragile Promises Amid Economic Pressures

Renowned Zambian economic expert Mr. Kelvin Chisanga says the country’s outlook for the second quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture—marked by cautious optimism tempered by pressing risks.

Speaking on the current state of the economy, Mr. Chisanga observed that while Zambia is showing promising signs of resilience, underlying fragilities—including high living costs, sustained inflation, and foreign exchange market volatility—pose significant threats to short-term stability.

“The second quarter is a period of economic contradiction,” he noted. “We have a bumper harvest that could ease commodity prices, but this is being offset by persistent inflation, limited foreign exchange supply, and the impact of global policy shifts, including the withdrawal of donor support.”

A major concern raised by Mr. Chisanga is the disruption to the health budget, which has forced the government into renegotiated plans to cushion the impact of funding cuts. 

He warned that such financial pressure could weaken the country’s human capital base, particularly in underserved communities.

Despite these challenges, Mr. Chisanga pointed to opportunities in the agriculture sector, where increased production is expected to lower commodity prices and stimulate local economic activity.

Looking ahead, he emphasized the urgency of concluding the debt restructuring process with Zambia’s remaining creditors.

“We must make logical closures on our debt talks, especially before October 2025, to clear the legal uncertainties surrounding our fiscal path,” he said.

Mr. Chisanga also highlighted concerns about power supply deficits, noting that unless addressed, these could undermine economic recovery.

“Energy remains a critical enabler. Its availability will determine whether we sustain growth or backslide,” he added.