Infrastructure Gains and Confidence Surge Drive Africa’s Trade Revival
Trade-enabling infrastructure across African markets is improving, while business confidence and macroeconomic stability continue to strengthen, according to the latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB).
The fifth edition of the ATB, which covers 10 key markets including Zambia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, reveals that firms are experiencing broad-based improvements across critical infrastructure sectors such as power, telecommunications, transport networks and digital border systems.
Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group, said this marks a significant milestone.
“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category. This is the first time since the Barometer’s launch that all indicators have improved simultaneously, reflecting growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation,” he said.
The report highlights that the surveyed economies account for 68% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, signalling a positive trajectory for cross-border trade across the continent.
Economic growth across the ATB markets is projected to reach 4.3% in 2026, supported by easing inflation in most countries and improved external debt positions. The business confidence index has risen to 65, with many firms expecting stronger turnover and more stable trading conditions.
Commodity exports, particularly gold, platinum and copper, are also contributing to improved foreign exchange earnings and economic resilience.
The report notes increasing awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), now at 50%, with businesses citing improved market access and smoother movement of goods.
East Africa has emerged as the strongest-performing region, recording a notable rise in export activity. This growth is attributed to enhanced policy coordination and trade facilitation reforms.
Kenya’s evolving trade arrangements with Uganda, alongside renewed commitments between Kenya and Tanzania to remove non-tariff barriers, are helping to reduce administrative bottlenecks and improve trade efficiency.
Shifts in global trade policy, including tariff changes affecting access to the United States, are influencing African trade patterns. The ATB reports declining engagement with US partners, while trade with Asian markets—particularly China—is on the rise due to competitive pricing and supply chain reliability.
Digital transformation is playing a key role in facilitating trade. The report shows that 78% of cross-border sales and 79% of purchases are now conducted digitally, driven by mobile money integration, banking platforms and the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS).
Despite positive developments, climate-related challenges remain a concern. About 38% of firms reported shifts in demand due to climate impacts, while 32% cited productivity losses, highlighting the need for resilient infrastructure and adaptive production systems.
The ATB concludes that Africa’s trade landscape is being reshaped by improved infrastructure, stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and deepening regional integration.
However, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could introduce uncertainty in energy prices and supply chains, potentially affecting trade costs in the short term.
“As AfCFTA implementation deepens and countries continue to harmonise customs and regulatory frameworks, Africa’s capacity to expand industrial output and strengthen regional value chains will accelerate,” Myburgh added.
Standard Bank Group, Africa’s largest bank by assets, continues to support trade across the continent through strategic partnerships and solutions aimed at connecting businesses to regional and global markets.
