Zambia’s Economic Stability Through Electoral Transition
As Zambia approaches the August 2026 general elections and the conclusion of the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP), the economy stands right at delicate points but with promising hopes.
Recent macroeconomic gains with currency stability, easing inflation, improved fiscal discipline and restored international confidence are standing so real, yet highly policy-dependent.
The principal risk sitting ahead is not political competition itself, but the possibility of policy slippages driven by election-related spending pressures.
History shows that unplanned expenditures, subsidy expansion, arrears accumulation and delayed reforms can quickly undermine hard-won stability.
If fiscal discipline weakens, inflation expectations could rise, domestic borrowing costs which would then increase cost pressure, which also could return to the exchange rate effects.
This would automatically erode investor confidence and slow down the private sector activity, at a very critical moment of recovery.
The transition period therefore clearly requires reprioritisation of budget target lines rather than expansion of spending, strict adherence to budget ceilings, and preservation of the Bank of Zambia’s operational independence is very much critical.
At the same time, social protection, education, health and skills development must be protected as productive investments, not viewed as discretionary costs.
Equally important is the timely articulation of a credible successor to the 8NDP, one that will be anchored on macroeconomic discipline, export-led growth, value addition and private-sector-led job creation. If managed prudently, the 2026 elections can consolidate reforms and mark Zambia’s shift from recovery to durable, inclusive growth.
