Fuel Performances in 2025: Zambia and the Global Outlook

Fuel market developments in 2025 reflect a year of relative global price moderation, tempered by episodic volatility arising from geopolitical tensions, exchange rate movements and shifting demand patterns.

Globally, oil prices were largely contained due to adequate supply from non-OPEC producers, moderate demand growth in major economies and structural changes such as improved fuel efficiency and gradual energy transition.

As a result, the global fuel market experienced fewer sustained price spikes, despite ongoing geopolitical risks.

For Zambia’s case, domestic fuel price performance closely mirrored global trends but was significantly amplified by movements in the Zambian Kwacha against the US dollar.

As an import-dependent economy for petroleum products, Zambia’s fuel prices remained highly sensitive to exchange rate dynamics.

Periods of Kwacha appreciation during 2025 enabled pump price reductions, easing transport costs and offering temporary inflation relief.

Conversely, episodes of currency weakening later in the year reversed some of these gains, resulting in renewed upward pressure on fuel prices even when international oil prices remained relatively stable.

Overall, the 2025 fuel performance highlights Zambia’s continued exposure to external shocks transmitted through global markets and currency movements.

While reforms in fuel procurement and pricing mechanisms are improving transparency and efficiency, long-term fuel price stability will depend on broader macroeconomic stability, particularly sustained exchange rate strength and diversified energy solutions.