Zambia’s 2026 Economic Outlook
Zambia’s 2026 economic outlook is cautiously positive but remains highly conditional on reform momentum and policy execution.
The restoration of macroeconomic stability following debt restructuring has improved fiscal credibility, exchange rate stability and investor confidence.
Growth projections slightly above 6 percent appear attainable, supported by higher mining output, recovery in agriculture and improved capital inflows.
However, growth remains narrowly driven by the mining sector, which has weak employment and income multipliers.
Without stronger linkages to manufacturing, energy development and local value addition, economic expansion will remain uneven and limit broad-based welfare gains.
Fiscal consolidation is appropriate and necessary, but limited fiscal space continues to constrain investment in energy, infrastructure and social services.
The challenge for 2026 is to shift spending toward productivity-enhancing sectors while maintaining debt sustainability.
Inflation is expected to ease further, but structural cost drivers power shortages, transport costs and market inefficiencies will continue to pressure household incomes.
Overall, 2026 represents a transition year, with success measured by whether stability translates into jobs, affordability and improved livelihoods for ordinary Zambians.
