IDTechEx Identifies Leading “Killer Applications” for Quantum Computing
Global technology research firm IDTechEx has released new findings exploring which industries are most likely to benefit first from commercially viable quantum computers, a development often described as the sector’s potential “ChatGPT moment”.
With the commercial market for quantum hardware forecast to exceed US$21 billion within the next two decades, industry focus is shifting away from theory and towards practical applications. Increasing numbers of hardware providers are now demonstrating high-fidelity performance using systems containing hundreds of qubits.
The new report, “Quantum Computing Market 2026–2046: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts”, is based on insights gathered from international conferences and interviews with quantum hardware developers, software companies, materials suppliers and end-users.
According to IDTechEx, the most promising near-term application for quantum computing lies in the simulation of quantum chemistry and materials science. These simulations could accelerate the development of new pharmaceuticals, advanced battery technologies, and industrial chemicals.
Major players, including Google Quantum AI and Quantinuum, have already demonstrated early proof-of-concept simulations, such as studies of the Ising model, which describes the magnetic properties of materials but is extremely complex for classical computers to process.
Industry collaboration with the chemical, pharmaceutical and automotive sectors has grown steadily over the last decade, reflecting rising confidence in commercially meaningful results.
Another major area of interest is optimisation – improving supply chains, transport logistics, energy distribution and financial portfolios. Canadian firm D-Wave has been a notable leader in this field, showcasing several pilot projects using its quantum annealing systems.
However, IDTechEx warns that the pathway to practical quantum speedup in optimisation remains uncertain, with strong competition from rapidly advancing classical algorithms.
The report also highlights quantum computing’s long-term threat to encryption systems. A study published in May 2025 by Google Quantum AI suggested that RSA-2048 encryption could be broken in less than a week using a quantum computer with under one million qubits – significantly fewer than previously estimated.
Although most major quantum hardware companies do not expect to reach this scale before the early 2030s, IDTechEx notes that the risk of a future “Q-Day” event is growing, and governments are increasingly prioritising quantum-safe cybersecurity strategies.
IDTechEx forecasts that as quantum computers continue to advance, commercially relevant use cases are likely to emerge within the next few years. The report examines competing hardware approaches, future milestones and adoption timelines, and a detailed analysis of potential applications.
The report concludes that commercially relevant quantum computing applications are likely to materialise over the next few years. Quantum chemistry appears to be the most promising early breakthrough, optimisation remains an area of high potential but high uncertainty, and cybersecurity concerns continue to accelerate investment.
The full report provides detailed analysis of hardware approaches, adoption timelines and potential future milestones across the global quantum computing ecosystem.
