Zambia’s Policy Outlook Shows Promise, But Risks Remain Ahead of 2026 Elections
Zambia’s policy performance is showing encouraging signs of recovery, with economic growth projected to rise from 5.8% in 2025 to 6.4% in 2026, supported by mining output, infrastructure investment and stabilising macroeconomic management under the IMF Extended Credit Facility programme.
Inflation development and pattern is expected to gradually decline, and the fiscal deficit will be narrowing toward 3% of GDP.
However, we should be aware that the gains still remain fragile.
Continuity of the IMF programme, coupled with stronger environmental enforcement following the February 2025 tailings dam disaster, and holding up to tighter oversight of mining revenues will be critical to sustaining this progress.
The momentum we see today is the result of fiscal discipline and targeted investments, but it could be undermined by election-year fiscal slippage, commodity price shocks, or lapses in governance.
Key recommendations include extending the IMF programme, accelerating bankable energy projects to address power constraints, protecting social spending and enacting fiscal guardrails ahead of the August 2026 elections.
Zambia’s economic path for the period between 2025–2027 offers a genuine opportunity for Zambia to attain stability and foster to anchor growth, but realising it will require firm political will, stronger transparent governance, and decisive actions on structural reforms.
